How to Predict a Thriving Church or a Church Closure
Author Edwin Friedman is known to have said that some congregations are pills and others are plums.
Every pastoral leader wants to pastor a “plum” church—a church characterized by thriving, but we suspect they are few and far between. Or, at best, a congregation may be a plum for some time during its lifecycle, but eventually, stressors, negative dynamics like chronic anxiety, and poorly functioning leaders can devolve a plum into a pill.
Friedman also suggested that congregations that are pills never become plums.
Can one predict how some churches can thrive (plums) and those that will close due to a failure to thrive (plums)?
Below are what thought leaders on congregations say about that.
Characteristics of a Thriving Church
Here are five characteristics of a thriving congregation, according to leaders on the subject:
Clear Mission and Vision According to Peter Drucker, “The most important thing in communication is hearing what isn’t said.” Thriving churches demonstrate clarity of purpose that guides their decisions, programs, and resource allocation. As Rick Warren notes in The Purpose Driven Church, “A clear purpose not only defines what we do, it defines what we don’t do.”
Strong Leadership Development John Maxwell emphasizes that “Everything rises and falls on leadership.” Thriving congregations intentionally develop leaders at all levels, creating a pipeline of capable individuals who can guide the church’s various ministries and initiatives.
Authentic Community Robert Schnase, in Five Practices of Fruitful Congregations, observes that thriving churches create “radical hospitality” where genuine relationships flourish beyond Sunday services.
Adaptability and Innovation Tod Bolsinger, in Canoeing the Mountains, argues that thriving churches demonstrate “adaptive capacity,” the ability to navigate change while maintaining their core mission and values.
Missional Engagement Finally, Alan Hirsch states in The Forgotten Ways that healthy churches maintain a “missional-incarnational impulse” that keeps them engaged with their communities rather than becoming insular.
Predictive Qualities for a Thriving Church
What will make a congregation a thriving and healthy church?
Here are thoughts from five authors. Can you discern these qualities in your congregation?
Leadership Emotional Intelligence Arguably, leadership is the most important element that helps foster and maintain a thriving church. Peter Scazzero, in The Emotionally Healthy Leader, suggests that emotionally healthy leadership is a key predictor of sustainable church health and thriving. Leaders who demonstrate self-awareness and relational wisdom create environments conducive to growth.
Systems Thinking According to Edwin Friedman in A Failure of Nerve, churches that effectively understand and manage their emotional systems are positioned better for health and growth. This includes managing anxiety and maintaining healthy boundaries.
Cultural Relevance Thom Rainer’s research, published in Autopsy of a Deceased Church, indicates that churches maintaining cultural awareness while holding firm to their corporate beliefs about faith show greater growth potential.
Financial Stewardship Dave Ramsey emphasizes that churches practicing sound financial principles and maintaining transparency in financial matters demonstrate greater sustainability and growth potential. Every thriving congregation I know has a pastoral leader who has resolved their own relationship with money and stewardship.
Intentional Discipleship Dallas Willard, in The Great Omission, argues that churches with systematic approaches to spiritual formation and discipleship show a greater likelihood of sustained growth. This speaks to the importance of intentional and grounded religious education in the Church.
Predictive Signs of Potential Church Closure
These authors hint that there are predictive signs for church closures:
Resistance to Change Gil Rendle, in Leading Change in the Congregation, identifies rigid and reactive resistance to necessary change as a primary indicator of decline and eventual closure. Churches that consistently choose comfort over mission often accelerate toward closure.
Leadership Vacuum According to William Willimon in Leading with the Sermon, churches lacking leadership development and succession planning often face critical vulnerabilities when key leaders depart.
Resource Depletion Tony Morgan’s The Unstuck Church identifies the pattern of depleting resources without replacement or strategic sustainability initiatives – whether financial, leadership, or volunteer – as a significant predictor of church closure.
Lost Connection with Community Reggie McNeal, in The Present Future, warns that churches losing touch with their surrounding community’s needs and demographics often face declining relevance and eventual closure. One common failure churches make is focusing on rebuilding the church with young families while not being cognizant of the data that about 50% of the adult population in the United States is single or living alone.
Chronic Conflict Speed Leas, in Moving Your Church Through Conflict, identifies unresolved, chronic conflict as a reliable predictor of church decline and potential closure. Churches unable to manage conflict constructively often experience accelerating membership loss.
Understanding these characteristics and predictive elements can help church leaders make informed decisions about their congregation’s direction and health. While no single factor determines a church’s trajectory, the presence or absence of multiple elements often indicates the likely path ahead.
Is your congregation a pill or a plum?
To learn more about leadership for a thriving congregation or developing leadership capacities for a stuck church, participate in the Leadership in Ministry program at the Center for Lifelong Learning.
~Israel Galindo is the Associate Dean for Lifelong Learning and directs its Pastoral Excellence Program.
